Our base to observe the 2013 Hybrid Solar Eclipse will be just north of the Murchison Falls National Park in Uganda, based at a magnificent lodge on the banks of the Victoria Nile. It is a hybrid eclipse of the Sun with a magnitude of 1.0159.
In addition to our eclipse observation, the programme offers an opportunity to visit not only Africa’s Secret Wonder – Murchison Falls but also of Uganda’s interesting wildlife regions such as Bwindi Impenetrable Forest – Home to the Endangered Mountain Gorillas!
If you want a serious challenge you can opt to climb the snow capped legendary Mountains of the Moon – Rwenzori!.
The Hybrid Eclipse 3rd November 2013
Eclipses are wonderfully predictable events whose predicted coordinates are the culmination of three millennia of astronomical and mathematical discovery. Utilizing the number-crunching clout of computers, eclipse tracks and times can be reliably calculated for centuries into the past and future, and with less accuracy, for millennia in both directions. For the upcoming hybrid eclipse in November, 2013, the sweep of the Moon’s shadow can be located to within a kilometre in position, and to within a part of a second in time. Only the weather remains uncertain.
The track of the 2013 hybrid brings an imposing meteorological challenge. Its beginning seems promising, in the relatively sunny skies beneath the sub-topical highs of the Atlantic, south of Bermuda. It is an annular eclipse in this region, and so most enthusiastic eclipse travellers will elect for a position farther down the track where the Moon covers the entire solar disk and the eclipse becomes total. However, as annular turns to total, the track moves out from under the favourable anticyclonic skies of the mid Atlantic and into the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ is a region where winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres converge, squeezing the humid tropical air upward, and germinating a band of frequent heavy showers and thundershowers that girdle the globe.
The shadow path is completely over water for the first two-thirds of its length, and then comes ashore in equatorial Africa for the remainder of its transitory journey across the Earth. Since more than half of the track – about 60 percent – is within the influence of the ITCZ, clear-sky prospects are generally meagre. From the satellite-based cloud-cover charts in Figures 1 and 2, four spots show as being relatively more promising than the rest: a location on the water near the point of maximum eclipse; a site in northwest Uganda; one in north central Kenya; and a fourth in southern Ethiopia.
The satellite-derived cloud cover charts are not exactly comparable to measurements taken from the ground by humans and machines. Observers and machines record from one spot, with an oblique view toward the surrounding horizons. Satellites observe from altitude, but also have oblique views toward the horizon, which lies much farther away than for a ground observer. Machines see only the cloud directly overhead and assemble areal measurements by keeping track of how the overhead sky changes with time. Detection of cloud from satellites relies on complex algorithms that compare infrared- and visible-light radiation measurements to make a judgement about the extent of cloudiness in the image pixels. Both ground-based and space-based observations are concerned with cloud amount, while the important parameter for eclipse-watchers is the opacity of the cloud – does it block the Sun? In the extreme, a sky that is covered by transparent cirrus cloud could be observed as overcast (in actual fact, it would be recorded as “thin overcast”) though it provides little impediment to viewing an eclipse. The upshot is that satellite and surface-based observations are probably biased to report a heavier cloud cover than actually exists.
At the Point of Maximum Eclipse
Maximum eclipse (1m 40s) occurs at 3.904°N 11.694W, 325 km SSW of the Liberian capital, Monrovia.Most of the cloudiness in this region comes from large clusters of thunderstorms and other types of convective cloud. Examination of individual satellite images around the location of the maximum eclipse showed a highly variable cloud climatology from day to day. On some days, the cloud is barely present, with only cumulus and small shower clouds dotting the ocean. At other times, the cloud shield is large and solidly overcast, requiring considerable movement to escape into sunshine. Encouragingly, in no case was the track ever completely clouded out.
The main advantage of a site near the point of maximum eclipse comes from the easy mobility of a ship, which can move out from under the cloud shield and into more promising weather. Because this may require a considerable diversion, the vessel should have a relatively flexible schedule and access to routine weather forecasts.
Annual precipitation over Africa comes in two rainy seasons that follow the migration of the ITCZ, to the north in March, April, and May and southward from October to December . From Gabon across The Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the rainy seasons are approximately equally intense, peaking in March/April and October/November, depending on the location. In the intervening months (December/January and June/July), rainfall usually drops significantly to create a dry, or at least, less wet, season. The spring rainy season is sometimes known as the “long wet” and the fall, the “short wet,” as much for their duration as intensity.
Under ordinary circumstances, sites along the coast will derive some benefit from the proximity to the ocean and the cooler waters that inhibit the growth of convective clouds. However the waters off Gabon lie at the confluence of the cold Benguela Current from the south and the warm Guinea Current from the north, creating an extensive cloudiness that is readily apparent in the cloud cover pattern. Nevertheless, the difference between the cloud amount over land and that over water revealed by the high-resolution contours does seem to promise at least a 5 percent advantage for a location in Gabon immediately adjacent to the coastline.
The shadow comes ashore in a relatively uninhabited part of Gabon and travel to the centreline will pose a challenge for larger expeditions. The major cities in the area, Port Gentil and Libreville, are a considerable distance from the axis of the eclipse track and overland travellers must skirt rivers and river estuaries to achieve maximum eclipse – essentially a full day’s travel. Another option, though one that results in only a 30-second eclipse, is to go north from Port Gentil to nearby Cape Lopez, a position easily reached by road, as it is only 13 km from the city to the edge of the eclipse track and 16 km to the farthest reaches of the peninsula (which lies 2 km inside the south limit). Fine sand beaches in the area will provide a pleasant eclipse-watching site, if not a long one. For those committed to the centreline, transportation by boat along the coast may be a more convenient option than going overland. From Port Gentil to the point where the centreline first comes ashore is a distance of about 60 km on the water.
In the interior of Africa, there are small regions in Gabon and the Congo where cloud cover is also slightly lower, but in general it could be said that the prospects from the Atlantic coast to the border of Uganda are very similar: pessimistic. To determine more precisely the prospects of seeing the eclipse, we turn to observations from land-based weather stations. The best statistic for evaluation the eclipse prospectus is the “percent of possible sunshine,” a measurement derived from actual observations of sunny hours at the observing sites. Port-Gentil on the coast and Lambarene in the interior are virtually identical in their measurements (31 versus 32 percent), but Lambarene may be a more convenient choice for an eclipse-watching base, as it lies a mere 14 km from the south limit and 43 km from the centreline along highway N1. Some help in reducing cloudiness will come from the falling temperatures as the shadow approaches. This cooling will inhibit the growth of at least the smaller convective clouds, and so the chances of seeing the eclipse might be increased to about 35 or even 40 percent from the 32 promised by the sunshine statistics. Also tempting, but less accessible, is Wonga Wongue Reserve, which sits astride the eclipse path.
Very similar prospects to Gabon are likely in the Congo (Brazzaville). Sunshine measurements are not available there, but the cloud measurements at Makoua (which lies within the track of the shadow) suggest that grey skies are equal to or perhaps a touch less than at Lambarene. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mbandaka has a slightly lower amount of cloud (based on a limited number of years of observation) according to surface-based observations, but this is not confirmed by the satellite measurements. Collectively the three countries are all very cloudy with similar prospects for a view of the eclipse.
The obvious difficulty with climatological frequencies such as those displayed here, is that the weather is much more variable than the climatology. Invariably, some areas with high average levels of cloudiness will be sunny on eclipse day, and some with good climatological prospects will be cloudy. Almost all of the cloudiness is convective with areas where the air is rising to form clouds while compensating adjacent regions have sunnier weather where the air is sinking.
The bimodal precipitation pattern that characterizes the rest of equatorial Africa falls apart in Uganda, with the monthly precipitation graph at Gulu showing a single broad rainfall maximum through the middle of the year followed by a short dry spell that begins in November and ends in March. While the dry spell really gets going in December, the downward trend in November is encouraging for eclipse viewing.
The track across Uganda descends from the high mountains along the border with the DRC, crosses the flat plateau north of Lake Albert, climbs over a lower set of hills to reach Gulu, descends again through the middle of the country and then climbs another set of peaks to reach the Kenya border. This up-and-down track makes selection of a site in northeast Uganda complicated but the satellite measurements are pretty clear on the best site – a location north of Lake Albert near the community of Pakwach. The area is protected to the east and west by higher ground and the effects of the nearby lake to the south. The nearest weather station, Arua, shows an average cloudiness of 71 percent, good for the season, but the centreline north of the lake is almost certainly sunnier than this, perhaps by 5 or 10 percent. The high levels of cloudiness reported at Gulu are out of character with the surrounding stations (though part of this is due to its location on the hills) at with the estimated percent of possible sunshine, and so our trust is probably best placed on the satellite record for site selection.
Examination of the daily satellite images over several years centred on November 4 also suggests that the satellite record is to be preferred. Afternoons in northern Uganda, along the eclipse track, are bothered by thundershowers nearly every afternoon, but the region immediately north of Lake Albert seems to have a higher frequency of sunny skies when the landscape elsewhere is blanketed by convective cloudiness. In all likelihood the cool waters of the lake suppress the development of storms and so a small area near the town of Pakwach enjoys an slightly larger amount of sunshine. The same is true of all of the lakes in Uganda and Kenya, but only Lake Albert and Lake Turkana (in Kenya) are close to or on the eclipse track. The advantage is small, but serves to help make northwest Uganda one of the more favourable spots for eclipse travel.
The high frequency of convective clouds – especially thunderstorms – implies that November’s rainfall probably comes from a few large storms that build in the afternoon and dissipate by morning. Convective clouds are very sensitive to ground temperature, and so the cooling that comes with the approach of the eclipse shadow will cause cumulus clouds to dissipate.
Past experience indicates that any cloud buildup that is not precipitating will fade away about half way between first and second contact, but the late hour of the day for this eclipse will probably mean that the smaller clouds will have begun to fade anyway because of the normal diurnal cycle; the incoming eclipse will hasten the process. The road between Pakwach and Gulu, which approximately follows the eclipse track, will provide a bit of extra insurance by allowing mobile chasers to move along the eclipse track to a more favourable spot at short notice.
The road dips out of the shadow path and then back into it, so movements should be made with a GPS receiver and an eye on the time available before first contact. The expedition in 2011 found the Gulu-Arua road (which goes through Pakwach) to be in excellent condition.
The centreline of the eclipse track north of Pakwach falls across the hamlet of Pokwero, situated on flat agricultural plains that provide no impediment to viewing the eclipse. The eclipse date was gloriously sunny when a scouting team visited the area in November 2011, even though thin high- and mid-level clouds stretched across parts of the sky. Travel is not difficult in the area, but other north-south roads are scarce between Gulu and Pakwatch, and so access to the mid-line of the eclipse is best achieved in the vicinity of Gulu or by heading north from Pakwach along the dirt-and-gravel road to Arua. One of the pleasant surprises during the 2011 scouting trip was the number of sunny days in spite of the contrary climatological record. Some of this could be attributed to the pessimistic nature of cloud observations, which do not clearly distinguish between thick and thin clouds.
As the eclipse track leaves Uganda, it descends abruptly onto the smoother terrain of northern plateau of Kenya, crossing Lake Turkana on its way to the Ethiopian border. The cloud-cover shows a region of low cloudiness through most of this region – in fact, the lowest cloud amount along the whole of the eclipse track, with values in the 65-to-70-percent range.
Surface observations at Lodwar, only 60 km south of the centreline, are very encouraging, showing a surprising 80 “percent of possible sunshine” for November. The explanation for this sunny refuge lies primarily in the nearby presence of Lake Turkana, which has a dramatic effect on the development and growth of convective clouds in the region.
Day-to-day satellite images frequently show a north-Kenya landscape dotted with showers and thundershowers, while the lake and nearby regions stand out, cloud free, in their midst. The region also benefits from the increasing distance from the mean position of the ITCZ, and even though precipitation patterns still show evidence of the double rainy season, the amount of precipitation is considerably lower than other sites along the Moon‘s path.
Africa Gorilla Treks 